At the March 2012 election, the Liberal National Affair (LNP) won a crushing 78 of the 89 aldermanic seats to aloof seven for Labor. Two acclamation wins during the aftermost appellation added Labor’s representation to a still paltry nine. On 31 January 2015, the LNP’s almanac majority was swept abroad in alone one term, with Labor acceptable 44 of the 89 seats, to 42 for the LNP. Labor formed government with the abutment of Nicklin Independent Peter Wellington. The added two seats were won by the Katter’s Australian Affair (KAP).
Following the acknowledgment of all seats on Friday, the Queensland Governor, Paul de Jersey, arrive Labor baton Annastacia Palaszczuk to anatomy a government. Palaszczuk appropriately becomes the aboriginal woman to advance her affair from action to government in an Australian state. Clare Martin won the Northern Territory acclamation from action in 2001, but the NT is not a state.
If changes in seats are abstinent from the 2012 acclamation result, again Labor acquired 37 seats, while the LNP absent 36. If changes are abstinent from the pre-election Parliament, Labor acquired 35 seats, and the LNP absent 31. None of the three LNP associates who defected were re-elected, and Labor additionally acquired Gladstone afterward the retirement of Independent Liz Cunningham, who had been the Gladstone MP back 1995. The acceptable cross-benchers all won their seats in 2012.
Labor won 30 of the 40 seats in Greater Brisbane, a accretion of 26 from the 2012 election. In the Central Coast, Labor won seven of 12 seats, a accretion of five. In North Queensland, they won seven of eight seats, a accretion of six. However, the Gold and Sunshine Coasts, area Labor had some success during the Beattie years, backward conservative; the LNP captivated 16 of 17 seats in these two regions, with Wellington acceptable the added seat.
On statewide primary votes, the LNP won 41.3%, bottomward 8.3%, Labor 37.5%, up 10.8%, the Greens 8.4%, up 0.9%, and Palmer United Affair (PUP) debuted with 5.1%. The KAP won 11.5% in 2012, but alone 1.9% at this election. Antony Green has tweeted an estimated statewide Two Affair Preferred (2PP) aftereffect of 50.9% to Labor; this is what Labor accomplished at the 2009 election, and would be about a 14% beat from the 2012 election.
Despite the use of alternative best voting that about helps arch candidates in Queensland, Labor won nine seats from abaft on primary votes, afterwards acceptable no seats from abaft in 2012. Antony Green thinks that changes in alternative flows accounted for over 2% of Labor’s 2PP swing, article that the pollsters bootless to annual for. For example, in Mount Coot-tha, Labor was over 10% abaft the LNP on primary votes, but won by over 5% afterwards preferences on absolute able flows from the 22% Greens vote.
Labor was absolutely somewhat afflicted to not win an absolute majority of the seats. Final abstracts are not yet accessible for all seats, but this table shows that the LNP won Mount Ommaney by 0.2%, Whitsunday by 0.4% and Mansfield by 0.6%. The aing Labor bench was Ferny Grove, which Labor won by 0.8%. The LNP additionally had a aing alarm adjoin One Nation baton Pauline Hanson in Lockyer, acceptable by aloof 114 votes or 0.2%.
Turnout for this acclamation was 89.9%, bottomward from 91.0% in 2012. The hardly lower assembly could be due to the acclamation timing in January and the new aborigine ID laws.
The Greens won 8.43% at this election, hardly college than the 8.37% they won in 2009. This acclamation is appropriately a almanac Queensland Greens vote. PUP ailing in ReachTEL at 15.4% in July, but alone won 5.1%.
The table beneath compares the polls’ estimates of abutment for the assorted parties adjoin the absolute result. I accept included Morgan and Essential alike admitting neither were final polls; Morgan conducted his Queensland poll two weeks afore the election, and Essential was taken over the three weeks above-mentioned to the election. Bold in the poll table denotes aing estimates.
The final acclamation from Galaxy, Newspoll and ReachTEL were authentic on the above affair primary votes, but the Greens and PUP both performed bigger than expected, and the “Others” vote was lower than expected. Essential and Morgan were added authentic on the 2PP than the added polls, but that was because both underestimated the LNP vote.
While the final acclamation were authentic on the above affair vote, the 2PP acutely favoured the LNP compared with the acclamation result. This was partly because these acclamation underestimated the Greens vote, but the best important acumen was that all the acclamation acclimated 2012 alternative flows, and 2015 flows were abundant bigger for Labor than in 2012.
In the best contempo Federal and Victorian elections, alternative flows were bigger for Labor than the pollsters estimated, but the Coalition’s primary vote advantage over Labor was additionally greater; these errors cancelled. In Queensland, the Labor/Green vote was underestimated, so the errors on both alternative flows and primaries compounded.
Individual bench acclamation in Ashgrove were authentic on 2PP, but the final Ashgrove acclamation abstract the primary vote gap amid Labor and the LNP. A stronger breeze of Greens preferences compensated for this overestimation. Galaxy alone bench polling in North Queensland accurately showed that the LNP could be wiped out there, but they were erroneous in Pumicestone and Greenslopes. A ReachTEL poll of the Gold Coast accurately showed alone a distinct chiffre beat to Labor in that region.
I acclaim that all pollsters address both acknowledging allocated and antecedent acclamation preferences for their approaching polls; currently, alone Ipsos does this for all its polls, while Morgan does for aloof his Federal polls. Acknowledging allocated preferences would accept been afterpiece to the absolute 2PP aftereffect in Queensland.
A abounding administration of preferences has now been conducted in Ferny Grove, area the PUP candidate, Mark Taverner, was erfingers because he was an undischarged bankrupt. The administration of preferences shows that 353 Taverner voters did not baddest a applicant from the three candidates actual back he was excluded. The cardinal of “1” alone Taverner voters is about absolutely hardly beneath than 353 because Taverner was afar afterwards an Independent, and some Independent voters could accept had Taverner second, again exhaust; the about-face could additionally apply.
Labor’s Mark Furner won Ferny Grove by 466 votes. At best 353 bodies voted “1” alone for Taverner, Alike if Taverner’s name had not appeared on the acclamation paper, and all of these 353 votes had gone to the LNP instead, Furner would accept won by over 100 votes. According to Antony Green, the courts accept ahead disqualified that votes which accord preferences to acceptable candidates are fine, alike if the aboriginal alternative applicant is begin ineligible.
As a aftereffect of the administration of preferences in Ferny Grove, the Electoral Commission Queensland (ECQ) will NOT accredit the calculation to the courts. The LNP could still claiming the result, but it is absurd such a claiming would succeed.
The ECQ has not conducted a statewide 2PP calculation back 1995, so the statewide 2PP at the 1998-2012 elections has been estimated. In 2015, there were seven seats area one of the two above parties did not accomplish the final two candidates. Unless the ECQ does a two affair calculation in those seats, we will not apperceive a audible 2PP for the 2015 election. The best we can do is to appraisal a 2PP in these seven seats.
I accept apparent abounding media reports, such as this one, that affirmation that Pauline Hanson absent Lockyer by 184 votes. The 184 vote allowance comes from the abstract Two Applicant Preferred (2CP). However, this abstract 2CP is not anxiously checked; it is alone displayed so that absorbed parties can chase the count. The official aftereffect for Lockyer is the 2CP aftereffect afterwards administration of preferences. You can acquisition it in this table on the ECQ’s capital after-effects page, and Hanson absent Lockyer by 114 votes, not 184 (13,230 to 13,116).
A acceptable way to bethink how to spell Palaszczuk is: P-A-L-A-S(ydney)-Z(oo)-C(anberra)-Z(oo)-U-K.
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