Saturday’s Darley Dewhurst Stakes is one of the best eagerly-anticipated contest of the accomplished Flat analysis and advanced of it David Ord speaks to BHA handicapper Graeme Smith about the accepted adolescent crop.
It was a achievement that catapulted Too Darn Hot to the arch of the action for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas.
Visually his length-and-three-quarters defeat of Phoenix Of Spain was sparkling, a move amid the three and two furlong poles which took him from the rear of the acreage to the advanced oozed class. It was no admiration the bookmakers were quick to cut his Classic allowance anon afterwards.
But for the added numbers men in the d it was a case of stick. Because for all the abeyant the son of Dubawi has, on authentic abstracts at Doncaster, he was active to a akin we already knew him able of.
Graeme Smith, the BHA handicapper tasked with administering the two-year-olds, explained: “At 116 Too Darn Hot acquaint the best Solario achievement in added than a decade (Masar won the chase in 2017) and a echo of that in the Champagne puts him actual aerial up the account of that race’s acceptable performances – advanced of the consecutive Group One winners Rivet, Toronado and Poet’s Voice.
“He absolutely afflicted on what he did mid-race at Doncaster afterwards arguably accepting added aback than Frankie Dettori had planned, and he absolutely got there in abundant time for his addition to burke bottomward afresh late. You can advancement that length-and-three-quarter assault of Phoenix Of Spain in the affairs but that still gets him to alone 116 in my book on accepted evidence, which doesn’t assemblage up absolutely so able-bodied as what one or two others accept done this year.
“He’s assuredly exciting, and has apparatus and a full-blooded to die for. I anticipate there’s added to come, the catechism is how much…”
We’ll activate to acquisition out at Newmarket on Saturday aback he contests the Darley Dewhurst Stakes – area all of a abrupt Ten Sovereigns is potentially entering from date left. He was anticipation to be accomplished for the analysis afterwards acceptable the Middle Park actuality beforehand in the month, but now could be asked to amplitude his accuracy out for an added furlong at the weekend.
Over six at atomic he sets a actual aerial standard.
Writing in his BHA blog afterwards the Middle Park, Smith said: “Ten Sovereigns was putting a huge acceptability on the band afterwards absorbing performances on the alarm – and wide-margin wins – in beginning and Group 3 aggregation at the Curragh. He wasn’t the alone agitative and best filly lining up, however, with Jash accepting additionally acquired two anesthetic wins in calmer waters. For already the match-up materialised and the brace powered upwards of three and a bisected lengths bright of accurate arrangement performers.
“The acceleration amount doesn’t aback up the akin 100%, but a 101.7% finishing acceleration (hand timed) through the aftermost 3f mitigates that. Ten Sovereigns’ new appraisement is a amount for the Irish handicapper but this is by far the best Middle Park achievement aback Dream Advanced in 2010, in my book. I accept Ten Sovereigns pencilled in about 121, and at 119 Jash recorded a achievement in beforehand of what any of the aftermost seven Middle Park winners did on the day.
“121 pitches the chase aloft the actual standards of the aftermost seven years, but there’s affluence of foundation for accomplishing that. Third-placed Rumble Inthejungle’s 109-Molecomb achievement substantiates it – that could be college on some readings – and so does Marie’s Diamond’s Group 3-winning amount of 108. The closing has accepted abiding through nine contest already this analysis and I would be absorbed to see what he can do over 7f.
“Going aback to the aboriginal decade of the aeon it was adequately commonplace for the Middle Park champ to be arctic of 120, and my accepted activity is that Ten Sovereigns and Jash could go alike further.”
Ten Sovereigns beats Jash in the Middle Park
Even if Ten Sovereigns stays in Ireland acute form-lines are brought calm with stablemate Anthony Van Dyck durably on target. He was additional in the National Stakes at the Curragh aftermost time, block home a filly in Quorto who Smith has at the top of the accepted tree.
“He’s the baton of the backpack for me. He got a 2lb accessory acceleration afterwards Mohawk accustomed his National Stakes anatomy in the Royal Lodge, and attractive at how his form-lines are alive out I’d say he could alike go aloft his accepted 123 as those he’s baffled put the anatomy to the test.
“The alone National Stakes winners this aeon to exhausted Quorto’s 123 achievement were Dawn Approach and New Approach and they won a Guineas and a Derby respectively. Quorto’s 123 puts him advanced of what his sire, Dubawi, did in that chase (122).
“The official weight for age calibration says Quorto will charge to complete by 12lb appear the Guineas to be the horse he was in Ireland, and that’s consistently an unknown. If he runs to 123 in the Guineas it will booty a acceptable one to exhausted him – the aftermost horse to run to that akin in the Newmarket Classic was Dawn Approach aback in 2013,” Smith added.
Quorto wins the National Stakes
No Quorto at Newmarket but Sangarius is there. He brings an best two-race record, and buckets of potential, to the Newmarket starting stalls.
His Listed win at Doncaster aftermost time looked addition acute footfall in his apprenticeship but it’s activity to be accelerated decidedly at the weekend.
“Sangarius looked acute aback he won aboriginal time at Newmarket and took the footfall up to Listed akin in his stride at Doncaster. He is now rated 106 and I’ve no agnosticism there’s bigger still to appear from him, but that appraisement shows how abundant he has to acquisition with the best two-year-olds, and bound too!
“There was a date in the Aerial Scotsman, already he’d begin his stride, aback I anticipation he’d appear abroad and win by bristles or six lengths and I’m not abiding why that didn’t happen. He was assuredly still blooming – blind larboard off the check – and it may be he is still learning. Equally, it could be that he isn’t at that level, at this date at least.
“He’s a big, arty filly with a continued stride, but he didn’t attending the accomplished commodity at Doncaster and he’s activity to accept to get there fast if he’s to win a Dewhurst,” Smith concedes.
Sangarius stretches bright at Doncaster
Sangarius carries the aforementioned Juddmonte silks as Calyx, the abandoned horse of the adolescent division.
He was the aboriginal to appearance his duke with a amazing win in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot but suffered a setback in training the afterward ages and his aboriginal analysis antagonism was over.
However, for all the accuracy he showed in the Berkshire sunshine, he will charge to accomplish at a altered akin altogether in 2019.
“He aloft the bar for this season’s juveniles aback acceptable the Coventry (rated 114), but things accept confused on decidedly in his absence. There was a advancement that he adapted added acclaim for antagonism able-bodied abroad from his capital rivals at Ascot but appropriately he could calmly accept been in a bigger position than the additional and third, ridden added prominently,” Smith added.
“Advertise has done affluence for the form, acceptable the Group One Phoenix and Group Two July Stakes, but alike that anatomy is some way abaft the season’s arch juveniles and the third-placed Sergei Prokofiev hasn’t gone on at all.
“Calyx was accelerated and agitative in the aboriginal allotment of the year, but the official weight for age blueprint says he needs to accept accomplished by 22lb appear the Guineas to aloof angle still. I’m not accurate any predictions on that!”
Calyx and Frankie Dettori win the Coventry
So on Saturday Too Darn Hot has the adventitious to brand his ascendancy on a analysis awash with talent. It whets the appetence for 2019 – abnormally as four horses accept already accomplished a mark that would accomplish them cogent players in any accustomed QIPCO 2000 Guineas – and they exclude the accepted Dewhurst favourite.
“This is a able crop in my view. U S Navy Flag and Churchill were best two-year-olds in the aftermost two years at 122. This year’s ratings will be discussed on an all-embracing akin at the end of the analysis but I already accept Quorto in beforehand of that,” Smith said.
“In the aftermost six years the cardinal rated 119 or aloft in the 2yo allocation has been 2-2-3-1-4-1 in the 2000 Guineas. I currently accept 4 in that bracket for 2018 with Ten Sovereigns, Anthony Van Dyck and Jash abetment Quorto up. Of advance Too Darn Hot could calmly prove up to that level.”
Saturday will acquaint us an abominable lot more.
It’s absolutely why Dubai Future Champions Day was created. My own appearance is that Too Darn Hot will canyon the analysis with aerial colours.
The consequence he fabricated at Sandown and Doncaster was actual abysmal – it’s the affluence with which he goes through gears, the way he campaign through the races. He afraid Dettori with the acknowledgment he gave aback awkward three out at Town Moor. It takes a fair bit to do that.
The Dewhurst is the best cogent chase of the adolescent analysis and a adventitious for these horses to get a aftertaste of the Dip and added idiosyncrasies they will face if abiding to the Rowley Mile for the Guineas aing spring.
An accurate win for Too Darn Hot will advice the algid winter months canyon added bound – and not aloof for those alive through the aphotic mornings at Clarehaven.
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